The Next Civil War: Religion
by Bob Schwartz

A few years ago, I proposed that the American divide over abortion might one day reach the dangerous depths of a much earlier conflict over slavery. Not since slavery—not even with still-festering questions about racial and other inequalities—has an issue had such a basic and visceral impact.
The poll numbers on abortion have shifted, the judicial context may be stable (for the moment), but the legislative activity is still a battlefield: among the initiatives, just today Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett signed a law prohibiting insurers that offer abortion coverage from participating in the state’s exchange under the Affordable Care Act.
Yet even with that, abortion will not be the biggest issue that cleaves America in the next few years. It will be, much more than it is now, religion.
Not one religion against another, or one religion-based position against another. We are approaching the point where half of America has an explicit or implicit affinity with some organized religious denomination or belief, and half does not. The not includes a wide range from atheists, agnostics, areligionists or anti-religionists to those who are “spiritual but not religious.”
America is not a theocracy or, officially, a theocratic democracy. But “theocratic democracy” (see Israel) is the way a number of Americans see it approvingly. Our conventions, traditions and even our money support this, and when they didn’t support it sufficiently, it was enhanced—as when during the Cold War against godless Communism, “under God” was added to the Pledge of Allegiance.
The dynamic between religious and secular has long played out in America in just about every official sphere. But in the past, those who fought for the secular and even succeeded (prayer in schools) were considered an aberrant and weird fringe. The fringe is now a minority, but still in some eyes, aberrant and weird. What happens when that fringe turned minority becomes an equal partner in American civics, citizens who are guided by bright moral lights, just not those that emanate from lamps they don’t believe in and refuse to support—or allow to rule their lives? What then?
Abraham Lincoln said we could not survive half-slave and half-free. The nineteenth century would not have hinted at it. but the American twenty-first may be half-God, half-not. What might Lincoln say then?
Where did you get your stats for 50/50? Pew says it’s about 84%-16% religious vs non-religious. The Census Bureau has it about 75-25.
Shouldn’t we factor out media coverage, and factor in the number of people affiliated with religion that are just as tolerant as those not? We tend to ignore the number of religious people who embrace the secular in favor of the screaming zealotry. Contrary to what the microcosms of idiot politics and TV would like us to believe, racism and class conflict still surpass religious differences in the everyday 9-5. Abortion is just a tiny blip on the American radar screen of immediate concern for the average American. And even though the pro-life movement seems to be growing (albeit more for PR than because of any true belief in the sanctity of life) a larger number of religious-affiliated people support choice (whether they get to the polls for it or not).
I live in God’s backyard, and most folks ’round here are more worried about gas prices than abortion. I can only speak from personal experience of course; but I can tell you I’ve been all over this country, and the conversation at the dinner table is rarely abortion when the price of milk is up. And when I’ve wandered into public tension so thick I can feel it on my skin, it’s laced with racism not god.
I think you are correct in predicting a bigger fight coming on the wind, but I think we’ll make it through just fine.
As far as Lincoln? Well, I suppose we can look to what he has said:
“That I am not a member of any Christian Church, is true; but I have never denied the truth of the Scriptures; and I have never spoken with intentional disrespect of religion in general, or of any denomination of Christians in particular.”
No matter which side you are on, the American fence always has an opening in it.
A long and thoughtful comment deserves a long and thoughtful reply. For now, though, allow me to answer the first question about the 50/50 estimate of religious/non-religious in the coming years. The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life report, “Nones” on the Rise , found 20% of American adults have no religious affiliation, but 34% of those under 30 are “nones”. Given the demographics and the pace of the trend, the admittedly seat-of-the-pants estimate of 50% is reasonable and likely, though obviously too casual for scientific scrutiny. This isn’t to say that some historic circumstantial intervention won’t disrupt that trajectory, but that is doubtful.
Gotcha. Thank you for the response. And in case I did not say it, I really enjoyed this post. I think it is very good food for thought. I do not say thank you to writers for their time and effort as much as I mean to.