Bob Schwartz

Polls matter little in non-democratic countries. The vast majority of citizens might vehemently disapprove of national leadership, but how does that matter? The only way forward is for opponents to band together, even in the face of jailing or disappearance, and do whatever is possible to change leadership and restore democracy.

I had a related question which I asked my occasional thought partner Claude:

Q: If there had been public opinion polling in Nazi Germany, can we speculate about how the German people would have answered the question of whether they approved or disapproved of the job Hitler was doing?

In part, here is what Claude answered:

Based on what we know from various sources – SD (security service) reports, private diaries, emigrant accounts, and postwar testimonies – we can make some educated speculations:

Early-to-mid 1930s (1933-1937): Approval likely would have been quite high, possibly 60-80%. Hitler achieved what many Germans saw as remarkable successes:

• Dramatic reduction in unemployment (from 6 million to under 1 million)
• Restoration of national pride after Versailles humiliation
• Bloodless territorial gains (Rhineland, Austria, Sudetenland)
• Economic recovery and stability

Late 1930s through early war (1938-1941): Still likely majority approval, though perhaps more mixed. Military victories came quickly with relatively light casualties, and life for “Aryan” Germans improved materially.

Mid-to-late war (1942-1945): This would have become increasingly complicated. Approval likely declined as:

• Casualties mounted
• Cities were bombed
• Food shortages worsened
• Defeat became inevitable

I draw a couple of conclusions from this.

Approval ratings only matter if they can practically lead to change. Had there been polls in Nazi Germany, even as approval declined, the only way to topple a powerful absolute ruler is to have internal comrades or external forces successfully make the change. Even so, if Hitler’s commanders had managed to get away with overthrowing him, democracy would not have been restored.

The early years of Nazi Germany had a lot of approving citizens, except of course those who were threatened, injured, jailed or killed. These citizens had a lot of complaints and held a lot of grudges, and they had a leader who seemed to be taking care of all that—or at least he claimed to be. If there was a price to pay for improving conditions, national pride, and elimination of the wrong people, those approving citizens were not (yet) paying it. Until they did.