Bob Schwartz

By the time of the Republican National Convention in July 2024, Trump will have been multiply indicted, tried at least once, and very possibly convicted at least once. By the time of the election in November, more trials will have happened, along with more possible convictions.

Two scenarios for the Republican nomination, assuming that Trump has managed to win the requisite delegates by the time of the convention:

1. Trump gets the nomination and is the party’s presidential candidate. In the election, some number of Republicans will not vote for him, though they will not vote for a Democrat, and instead will simply not vote for president. Some number of Republican-leaning independents will do the same, while others of them may actually reluctantly vote for the Democratic candidate. This is close to assuring that Trump will lose.
2. Trump is somehow denied the nomination, as the party doesn’t want to be known for running an indicted or convicted felon for president. Lawyers and party operatives are secretly working on this scenario, since attempting to deny a nomination puts the party (not for the first time in the Trump era) in unprecedented territory. Chaos would ensue. A not-Trump candidate would have to be nominated, some number of delegates will walk out, Trump will run as an independent and get plenty of votes, etc. This is close to assuring that Republicans will again lose the presidency.

Experts will say that scenario #1 is easier and lower risk and it is the choice the party will make. Who knows? Trump may yet pull it off, as he has before (except in 2020 and 2022).

I predict scenario #2. It does involve a level of party mechanics that, as noted, the lawyers and operatives are secretly conjuring. How exactly do you tell someone who has the requisite delegates that, party rules be damned, you can’t be our nominee? But enough hard-headed Republicans, so far willing to wear the Trump brand, don’t want the party known for generations as the one that put forward an authoritarian coup leader—essentially a traitor—as their standard bearer. Anyway, if Trump couldn’t win as an incumbent in 2020, before his criminal character was glaringly spotlighted, how could he win in 2024? If the party is going to lose the presidency anyway, wouldn’t they like to go down with dignity and decency intact—or at least on the way to being recovered?

© 2023 by Bob Schwartz